Life expectancy

Human life expectancy at birth, measured by region, between 1950 and 2050
Life expectancy total population at birth, OECD 2013

Life expectancy, often abbreviated to LEB (for Life expectancy at birth), is a statistical measure of the average time an organism is expected to live, based on the year of its birth, its current age and other demographic factors including gender. The most commonly used measure of life expectancy is at birth, which can be defined in two ways. Cohort LEB is the mean length of life of an actual birth cohort (all individuals born a given year) and can be computed only for cohorts born many decades ago, so that all their members have died. Period LEB is the mean length of life of a hypothetical cohort[clarification needed] assumed to be exposed, from birth through death, to the mortality rates observed at a given year.[1]

National LEB figures reported by statistical national agencies and international organizations are indeed estimates of period LEB. In the Bronze Age and the Iron Age, LEB was 26 years; the 2010 world LEB was 67.2 years. For recent years, LEB in Eswatini (Swaziland) is about 49, while LEB in Japan is about 83. The combination of high infant mortality and deaths in young adulthood from accidents, epidemics, plagues, wars, and childbirth, particularly before modern medicine was widely available, significantly lowers LEB. For example, a society with a LEB of 40 may have few people dying at precisely 40: most will die before 30 or after 55. In populations with high infant mortality rates, LEB is highly sensitive to the rate of death in the first few years of life. Because of this sensitivity to infant mortality, LEB can be subjected to gross misinterpretation, leading one to believe that a population with a low LEB will necessarily have a small proportion of older people.[2] Another measure, such as life expectancy at age 5 (e5), can be used to exclude the effect of infant mortality to provide a simple measure of overall mortality rates other than in early childhood; in the hypothetical population above, life expectancy at 5 would be another 65. Aggregate population measures, such as the proportion of the population in various age groups, should also be used along individual-based measures like formal life expectancy when analyzing population structure and dynamics. However, pre-modern societies still had universally higher mortality rates and universally lower life expectancies at every age for both genders, and this example was relatively rare. In societies with life expectancies of 30, for instance, a 40 year remaining timespan at age 5 may not be uncommon, but a 60 year one was.

Mathematically, life expectancy is the mean number of years of life remaining at a given age, assuming age-specific mortality rates remain at their most recently measured levels.[3] It is denoted by ,[a] which means the mean number of subsequent years of life for someone now aged , according to a particular mortality experience. Longevity, maximum lifespan, and life expectancy are not synonyms. Life expectancy is defined statistically as the mean number of years remaining for an individual or a group of people at a given age. Longevity refers to the characteristics of the relatively long life span of some members of a population. Maximum lifespan is the age at death for the longest-lived individual of a species. Moreover, because life expectancy is an average, a particular person may die many years before or many years after the "expected" survival. The term "maximum life span" has a quite different meaning and is more related to longevity.

Life expectancy is also used in plant or animal ecology;[4] life tables (also known as actuarial tables). The term life expectancy may also be used in the context of manufactured objects,[5] but the related term shelf life is used for consumer products, and the terms "mean time to breakdown" (MTTB) and "mean time between failures" (MTBF) are used in engineering.

Human patterns

Maximum

Records of human lifespan above age 100 are highly susceptible to errors.[6] For example, the previous world-record holder for human lifespan, Carrie White, was uncovered as a simple typographic error after more than two decades.[6] Therefore, the capacity for equivalent hidden errors make maximum lifespan records highly dubious. The oldest confirmed recorded age for any human is 122 years, reached by Jeanne Calment who lived between 1875 and 1997. This is referred to as the "maximum life span," which is the upper boundary of life, the maximum number of years any human is known to have lived.[7] A theoretical study shows that the maximum life expectancy at birth is limited by the human life characteristic value δ, which is around 104 years.[8] According to a study by biologists Bryan G. Hughes and Siegfried Hekimi, there is no evidence for limit on human lifespan.[9][10] However, this view has been questioned on the basis of error patterns.[6]

Variation over time

The following information is derived from the 1961 Encyclopædia Britannica and other sources, some with questionable accuracy. Unless otherwise stated, it represents estimates of the life expectancies of the world population as a whole. In many instances, life expectancy varied considerably according to class and gender.

Life expectancy at birth takes account of infant mortality but not prenatal mortality.

Era Life expectancy at birth in years Life expectancy at older age
Paleolithic 33 Based on Neolithic and Bronze Age data, the total life expectancy at 15 would not exceed 34 years.[11] Based on the data from modern hunter-gatherer populations, it is estimated that at 15, life expectancy was an additional 39 years (total 54), with a 0.60 probability of reaching 15.[12]
Neolithic 20[13] to 33[14] Based on Early Neolithic data, total life expectancy at 15 would be 28–33 years[11]
Bronze Age and Iron Age[15] 26 Based on Early and Middle Bronze Age data, total life expectancy at 15 would be 28–36 years[11]
Classical Greece 25[16] to 28[17] Based on Athens Agora and Corinth data, total life expectancy at 15 would be 37–41 years[11]
Classical Rome 20 to 30 Data is lacking, but computer models provide the estimate. If a person survived to age 20, they could expect to live around 30 years more. Life expectancy was probably slightly longer for women than men.[18]
Medieval Islamic world[19] 35+[need quotation to verify] Average lifespan of scholars was 59–84.3 years.[20][21][22][23]
Pre-Columbian Southern United States[24] 25–30  
Late medieval English peerage[25][26] 30 At age 21, life expectancy of an aristocrat was an additional 43 years (total age 64).[27] 
Mughal India[28] 35
Early modern England[15] 33–40 34 years for males in the 18th century.[29]
Pre-Champlain Canadian Maritimes[30] 60 Samuel de Champlain wrote that in his visits to Mi'kmaq and Huron communities, he met people over 100 years old. Daniel Paul attributes the incredible lifespan in the region to low stress and a healthy diet of lean meats, diverse vegetables and legumes.[31]
18th-century Prussia[29] 24.7 For males.[29]
18th-century France[29] 27.5–30 For males.[29]
18th-century Qing China[29] 39.6 For males.[29]
18th-century Edo Japan[29] 41.1 For males.[29]
19th-century British India[32] 25.4
Early 19th-century England[15] 40
1900 world average[33] 31  
1950 world average[33] 48  
2017 world average[34] 72.2

Life expectancy increases with age as the individual survives the higher mortality rates associated with childhood. For instance, the table above listed the life expectancy at birth among 13th-century English nobles at 30. Having survived until the age of 21, a male member of the English aristocracy in this period could expect to live:[27]

  • 1200–1300: to age 64
  • 1300–1400: to age 45 (because of the bubonic plague)
  • 1400–1500: to age 69
  • 1500–1550: to age 71

In a similar way, the life expectancy of scholars in the Medieval Islamic world was 59–84.3 years.[20][21][22][23]

17th-century English life expectancy was only about 35 years, largely because infant and child mortality remained high. Life expectancy was under 25 years in the early Colony of Virginia,[35] and in seventeenth-century New England, about 40 percent died before reaching adulthood.[36] During the Industrial Revolution, the life expectancy of children increased dramatically.[37] The under-5 mortality rate in London decreased from 745 in 1730–1749 to 318 in 1810–1829.[38][39]

Public health measures are credited with much of the recent increase in life expectancy. During the 20th century, despite a brief drop due to the 1918 flu pandemic[40] starting around that time the average lifespan in the United States increased by more than 30 years, of which 25 years can be attributed to advances in public health.[41]

Regional variations

Countries by average life expectancy according to the WHO (2015)

Human beings are expected to live on average 30–40 years in Eswatini[42] and 82.6 years in Japan, but the latter's recorded life expectancy may have been very slightly increased by counting many infant deaths as stillborn.[43] An analysis published in 2011 in The Lancet attributes Japanese life expectancy to equal opportunities and public health as well as diet.[44][45]

Plot of life expectancy vs. GDP per capita in 2009. This phenomenon is known as the Preston curve.
Graphs of life expectancy at birth for some sub-Saharan countries showing the fall in the 1990s primarily due to the HIV pandemic.[46]

There are great variations in life expectancy between different parts of the world, mostly caused by differences in public health, medical care, and diet. The impact of AIDS on life expectancy is particularly notable in many African countries. According to projections made by the United Nations (UN) in 2002, the life expectancy at birth for 2010–2015 (if HIV/AIDS did not exist) would have been:[47]

  • 70.7 years instead of 31.6 years, Botswana
  • 69.9 years instead of 41.5 years, South Africa
  • 70.5 years instead of 31.8 years, Zimbabwe

Actual life expectancy in Botswana declined from 65 in 1990 to 49 in 2000 before increasing to 66 in 2011. In South Africa, life expectancy was 63 in 1990, 57 in 2000, and 58 in 2011. And in Zimbabwe, life expectancy was 60 in 1990, 43 in 2000, and 54 in 2011.[48]

During the last 200 years, African countries have generally not had the same improvements in mortality rates that have been enjoyed by countries in Asia, Latin America, and Europe.[49][50]

In the United States, African-American people have shorter life expectancies than their European-American counterparts. For example, white Americans born in 2010 are expected to live until age 78.9, but black Americans only until age 75.1. This 3.8-year gap, however, is the lowest it has been since 1975 at the latest. The greatest difference was 7.1 years in 1993.[51] In contrast, Asian-American women live the longest of all ethnic groups in the United States, with a life expectancy of 85.8 years.[52] The life expectancy of Hispanic Americans is 81.2 years.[51] According to the new government reports in the USA, life expectancy in the country dropped again because of the rise in suicide and drug overdose rates. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) found nearly 70,000 more Americans died in 2017 than 2016, with rising rates of death among 25- to 44-year-olds.[53]

Cities also experience a wide range of life expectancy based on neighborhood breakdowns. This is largely due to economic clustering and poverty conditions that tend to associate based on geographic location. Multi-generational poverty found in struggling neighborhoods also contributes. In United States cities such as Cincinnati, the life expectancy gap between low income and high income neighborhoods touches 20 years.[54]

Economic circumstances

Life expectancy is higher in rich countries with low economic inequality[55]

Economic circumstances also affect life expectancy. For example, in the United Kingdom, life expectancy in the wealthiest and richest areas is several years higher than in the poorest areas. This may reflect factors such as diet and lifestyle, as well as access to medical care. It may also reflect a selective effect: people with chronic life-threatening illnesses are less likely to become wealthy or to reside in affluent areas.[56] In Glasgow, the disparity is amongst the highest in the world: life expectancy for males in the heavily deprived Calton area stands at 54, which is 28 years less than in the affluent area of Lenzie, which is only 8 km away.[57][58]

A 2013 study found a pronounced relationship between economic inequality and life expectancy.[59] However, a study by José A. Tapia Granados and Ana Diez Roux at the University of Michigan found that life expectancy actually increased during the Great Depression, and during recessions and depressions in general.[60] The authors suggest that when people are working extra hard during good economic times, they undergo more stress, exposure to pollution, and likelihood of injury among other longevity-limiting factors.

Life expectancy is also likely to be affected by exposure to high levels of highway air pollution or industrial air pollution. This is one way that occupation can have a major effect on life expectancy. Coal miners (and in prior generations, asbestos cutters) often have lower life expectancies than average. Other factors affecting an individual's life expectancy are genetic disorders, drug use, tobacco smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, obesity, access to health care, diet and exercise.

Sex differences

Pink: Countries where females life expectancy at birth is higher than males. Blue: A few countries in the south of Africa where females have shorter lives due to AIDS[61]
Comparison of male and female life expectancy at birth for countries and territories as defined in the 2011 CIA Factbook, with selected bubbles labelled. The dotted line corresponds to equal female and male life expectancy. The apparent 3D volumes of the bubbles are linearly proportional to their population.[62][63] (In the SVG file, hover over a bubble to highlight it and show its data.)

A paper from 2015 found that female fetuses have a higher mortality rate than male fetuses.[64] This finding contradicts papers dating from 2002 and earlier that attribute the male gender to higher in-utero higher mortality rates.[65][66][67] Among the smallest premature babies (those under 2 pounds or 900 g), females have a higher survival rate. At the other extreme, about 90% of individuals aged 110 are female. The difference in life expectancy between men and women in the United States dropped from 7.8 years in 1979 to 5.3 years in 2005, with women expected to live to age 80.1 in 2005.[68] Data from the UK shows the gap in life expectancy between men and women decreasing in later life. This may be attributable to the effects of infant mortality and young adult death rates.[69]

In the past, mortality rates for females in child-bearing age groups were higher than for males at the same age. This is no longer the case, and female human life expectancy is considerably higher than that of males despite females having higher morbidity rates, see Health Survival paradox. The reasons for this are not entirely certain. Traditional arguments tend to favor sociology-environmental factors: historically, men have generally consumed more tobacco, alcohol and drugs than women in most societies, and are more likely to die from many associated diseases such as lung cancer, tuberculosis and cirrhosis of the liver.[70] Men are also more likely to die from injuries, whether unintentional (such as occupational, war or car accidents) or intentional (suicide).[70] Men are also more likely to die from most of the leading causes of death (some already stated above) than women. Some of these in the United States include: cancer of the respiratory system, motor vehicle accidents, suicide, cirrhosis of the liver, emphysema, prostate cancer, and coronary heart disease.[7] These far outweigh the female mortality rate from breast cancer and cervical cancer.

Some argue that shorter male life expectancy is merely another manifestation of the general rule, seen in all mammal species, that larger-sized individuals within a species tend, on average, to have shorter lives.[71][72] This biological difference occurs because women have more resistance to infections and degenerative diseases.[7]

In her extensive review of the existing literature, Kalben concluded that the fact that women live longer than men was observed at least as far back as 1750 and that, with relatively equal treatment, today males in all parts of the world experience greater mortality than females. Kalben's study, however, was restricted to data in Western Europe alone, where demographic transition occurred relatively early. In countries such as Hungary, Bulgaria, India and China, males continued to outlive females into the twentieth century.[73] Of 72 selected causes of death, only 6 yielded greater female than male age-adjusted death rates in 1998 in the United States. With the exception of birds, for almost all of the animal species studied, males have higher mortality than females. Evidence suggests that the sex mortality differential in people is due to both biological/genetic and environmental/behavioral risk and protective factors.[74]

There is a recent suggestion that mitochondrial mutations that shorten lifespan continue to be expressed in males (but less so in females) because mitochondria are inherited only through the mother. By contrast, natural selection weeds out mitochondria that reduce female survival; therefore such mitochondria are less likely to be passed on to the next generation. This thus suggests that females tend to live longer than males. The authors claim that this is a partial explanation.[75][76]

In developed countries, starting around 1880, death rates decreased faster among women, leading to differences in mortality rates between males and females. Before 1880 death rates were the same. In people born after 1900, the death rate of 50- to 70-year-old men was double that of women of the same age. Cardiovascular disease was the main cause of the higher death rates among men. Men may be more vulnerable to cardiovascular disease than women, but this susceptibility was evident only after deaths from other causes, such as infections, started to decline.[77] Most of the difference in life expectancy between the sexes is accounted for by differences in the rate of death by cardiovascular diseases among persons aged 50–70.[78]

Centenarians

In developed countries, the number of centenarians is increasing at approximately 5.5% per year, which means doubling the centenarian population every 13 years, pushing it from some 455,000 in 2009 to 4.1 million in 2050.[79] Japan is the country with the highest ratio of centenarians (347 for every 1 million inhabitants in September 2010). Shimane prefecture had an estimated 743 centenarians per million inhabitants.[80]

In the United States, the number of centenarians grew from 32,194 in 1980 to 71,944 in November 2010 (232 centenarians per million inhabitants).[81]

Mental illness

Mental illness is reported to occur in approximately 18% of the average American population.[82][83]

Life expectancy in the seriously mentally ill is much shorter than the general population.[84]

The mentally ill have been shown to have a 10- to 25-year reduction in life expectancy.[85] Generally, the reduction of lifespan in the mentally ill population compared to the mentally stable population has been studied and documented.[86][87][88][89][90]

The greater mortality of people with mental disorders may be due to death from injury, from co-morbid conditions, or from medication side effects.[91] For instance, psychiatric medications can increase the risk of developing diabetes.[92][93][94][95] It has been shown that the psychiatric medication olanzapine can increase risk of developing agranulocytosis among other comorbidities.[96][97] Psychiatric medicines also affect the gastrointestinal tract, where the mentally ill have a four times risk of gastrointestinal disease.[98][99][100]

Other illnesses

The life expectancy of people with diabetes, which is 9.3% of the U.S. population, is reduced by roughly ten to twenty years.[101][102] Other demographics that tend to have a lower life expectancy than average include transplant recipients,[103] and the obese.[104]

Education

Education on all levels has been shown to be strongly associated with increased life expectancy.[105] This association may be due partly to higher income, [106] which can lead to increased life expectancy. Despite the association, there is no causal relationship between higher education and life expectancy.[105]

According to a paper from 2015, the mortality rate for the Caucasian population in the United States from 1993 to 2001 is four times higher for those who did not complete high school compared to those who have at least 16 years of education.[105] In fact, within the U.S. adult population, those who have less than a high school education have the shortest life expectancies.

Pre-school education also plays a large role in life expectancy. It was found that high-quality early stage childhood education had positive effects on health. Researchers discovered this by analyzing the results of the Carolina Abecedarian Project (ABC) finding that the disadvantaged children who were randomly assigned to treatment had lower instances of risk factors for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases in their mid-30s.[107]

Other Languages
Alemannisch: Lebenserwartung
беларуская (тарашкевіца)‎: Працягласьць жыцьця
bosanski: Životna dob
Esperanto: Vivdaŭro
føroyskt: Miðallívsævi
贛語: 壽歲
한국어: 평균 수명
Bahasa Indonesia: Harapan hidup
latviešu: Dzīves ilgums
Bahasa Melayu: Jangka hayat
Nederlands: Levensverwachting
日本語: 平均余命
norsk nynorsk: Forventa levealder
ភាសាខ្មែរ: អាយុសង្ឃឹម
português: Esperança de vida
Simple English: Life expectancy
Taqbaylit: Asirem n tudert
Tiếng Việt: Tuổi thọ trung bình
粵語: 預期壽命
中文: 预期寿命